注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

庄健的博客

亚洲开发银行高级经济学家

 
 
 

日志

 
 

Global financial crisis and China's employment  

2009-05-26 15:05:23|  分类: 英语TM俱乐部 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

(This is a speech I delivered in the Beijing #1 Toastmaster Club on 25 May evening. I hope my friends can read it and give your comments and suggestions. Thanks.) 

Hello, friends. How are you? Are you happy?

I'm very happy to give a prepared speech at this stage. My topic today is "Global financial crisis and China's employment".

Nowadays economists are more and more popular but I'm not the case. So I'd like to take this chance to introduce more about me and my organization. My Chinese name is Zhuang Jian. I joined Asian Development Bank (or ADB) as an economist in 2001. Before that, I worked for National Bureau of Statistics for more than 15 years. I got my PhD in Statistics in 2007.

ADB is a multilateral development bank, owned by 67 member countries. Please remember that not all these 67 members are Asian countries. Only 48 are in the region but other 19 from other parts of the world. ADB's main products are policy dialogue, loans and technical assistance. If you want to know more about ADB, please visit our website at adb.org.

So much for my self-introduction. Let's get started. My presentation focuses on 4 questions.

No. 1, what are the major economic indicators we should know?

No. 2, how is the global financial crisis affecting China's employment?

No. 3, what are the consequences of rising unemployment rate?

No. 4, how did the government respond to the problem?

My answer to the first question is 4 indicators. They are GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and current account balance. Although the ongoing global financial crisis has impacts on all these four indicators, I'll focus my speech on unemployment because (i) time is limited; and (ii) this indicator is more interesting than others.

In fact, the most direct influence of the global financial crisis on China's economy is through foreign trade. When the US and Europe are experiencing economic recession, their import demand from other countries slowed significantly. As a result, export-oriented countries like China has less and less export orders. This caused a sharp decline or even drop in exports. From this chart, we can clearly see the drop in exports since November last year. In the past April 2009, China's exports declined by 22.6%. Dropping exports mean more and more export companies have to shrink their production, reduce their costs, and laid off workers especially those rural migrant workers.

How serious is the unemployment issue in China? From the official registered unemployment rate we could not any big change because this official unemployment rate included only those registered unemployed people in urban areas. All rural migrant workers are not included in this statistics. According to this official data, the unemployment rate was only 4.2% in 2008. However, more people thought the real unemployment rate should be much higher than 4.2%. For instance, a nationwide sample survey conducted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that if the migrant workers were included, the unemployment rate should be 9.4%, more than double of the official figure.

To realize the unemployment issue in China, we should know two figures. One is that there were 20 million migrant workers lost their jobs and the other is about 1.8 million college graduates are still looking for works. Figures are boring but these photos can tell the reality.

What are the consequences of such a large unemployed people? First, this will reduce the jobless people's and their family's incomes. I knew about 36% of rural household incomes are come from migrant workers' wages and salary. As more and more migrant workers were laid off, rural incomes will slowed significantly in the years to come.

Second, as most social welfare like pension, health care, and insurance are related to jobs. When you lose your job, this social security will also lose. Another problem is the social security is localized; it's very difficult to be transferred from one city to another. So if you quite your job in Guangdong, you could not transfer your social welfare to Sichuan.

Third, as unemployed workers and student increased, the possibility of social unrest is growing up. According to news report, strikes and protests occurred in several cities like Dongguan, Chongqing, and Changchun early this year. Labor arbitration cases also increased, and conflicts between returned migrant workers who lent out land and farmers who rent the land emerged.

Facing the big challenge, the government decided in this March to allocate 42 billion yuan in supporting employment in 2009. Other measures include: (i) providing more subsidies for graduates who take jobs at community levels; (ii) increasing more internships for graduates in universities, research institutes and enterprises; (iii) creating jobs for rural migrant workers through government investment projects; (iv) helping enterprises to prevent layoffs by renegotiating wage levels, adopting flexible work hours, or providing job training opportunities; and (v) supporting individuals in starting their own businesses.

Ok. Let me summarize the key points in my presentation. First, GDP, inflation, employment, and current account balance are 4 important indicators. Second, global financial crisis cut our external demand and affected China's employment. Third, there are 20 million migrant workers lost their jobs and at least 1.8 college graduates are still searching for work. Furth, our government is making efforts to deal with the problem.

With that I wrap up my presentation and look forward to answering your questions. Thank you.

  评论这张
 
阅读(3178)| 评论(3)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017